Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | Sudden intraday shortfalls mislead the market, real estate expectations increase, and financial demand

[Anatomy Dashboard]

Over the past few days, the rise in Hong Kong stocks has been accompanied by severe contraction, which shows that capital is more cautious and more wait-and-see. This state of affairs is prone to decline when it encounters adverse factors. This is the case today. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.91%.

Judging from the recent power game, the situation is favorable to us. What Trump called at the beginning of the tariff war did frighten some small countries, such as Vietnam, which was the first to kneel, but the problem was that it was useless to kneel; instead, he was ridiculed. Once we see the essence clearly, we can only move closer to us.

Yesterday's joint statement between China and Vietnam has made this clear. Japan, on the other hand, is much smoother. We can see it relatively thoroughly, and our attitude has become tougher along with our toughness. But Trump won't easily admit defeat; it is inevitable that he will continue to do things.

The White House issued an article at noon today (16th) saying that due to China imposing retaliatory tariffs on imported US goods, imported Chinese goods now face tariffs of up to 245%. This is clearly an exaggeration: the words “UP TO” (maximum attainable) were used. This White House document is not a new executive order. It is mainly used to state the facts. It can be traced that HTS 9903.01.63 (equal tariff provision for China) is still +125%, with no change. However, tariffs on certain products reached up to 245%, such as electric vehicles (in August 2024, the Biden administration raised import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 100% +20% fentanyl plus +125% equivalent tariffs = 245%). This is a digital game played, and it was sent out on the market, causing unfounded investments to cause panic as if they were continuing to increase.

Chips are also in trouble. Nvidia released an 8-K document on the 15th local time stating that the company recently received a notice from the US government that H20 chips and chips that reach H20 memory bandwidth, interconnect bandwidth, etc. need to obtain a license to export H20 chips to China and other countries and regions. The new regulations will affect the company's total quarterly expenses of around $5.5 billion. Nvidia shares fell more than 6% in after-hours trading. The chip basically doesn't stick anymore; it was Nvidia that was damaged.

In this environment, gold continues to strengthen. On April 16, New York futures reached the 3,300 US dollars/ounce mark for the first time, and the intraday increase extended to 1.85%; spot gold is now reported at 3,283 US dollars/ounce. Chifeng Gold (06693) once again surged more than 16%, while others, Wanguo Gold International (03939), Shandong Gold (01787), and Zhaojin Mining (01818), rose more than 7%. Gold stocks have recently been repeatedly mentioned to everyone. Currently, they are the only sector where capital continues to be involved.

Domestic pure gold jewelry prices announced today by several gold and jewelry brands have also soared. The higher one has already reached 1006 yuan/gram. On the morning of the same day, the domestic prices of Chow Tai Fook Gold (jewelry, ornaments category), Lukfook Jewellery Pure Gold 999/Pure Gold, and Chao Hongji Gold (jewelry ornaments) were 1006 yuan/gram; the domestic price of Chow Sang Sang Gold jewellery and Laomiao Gold were 1003 yuan/gram in Shanghai. However, the jewellery sales category Lukfook Group (00590) and Chow Tai Fook (01929) have not moved much, indicating that confidence in the consumer level is still insufficient, and future performance is not easy to judge.

Some media asked about the impact of the US “equal tariffs” on China's GDP. Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference that in the short term, the imposition of high tariffs by the US will put some pressure on our country's foreign trade and economy, but it will not change the general trend of the Chinese economy continuing to improve in the long term.

Furthermore, China has too many countermeasures, and the US hardly has any cards to play. On April 15, local time, people familiar with the matter were quoted as reporting that as part of counteracting US tariffs, China has requested domestic airlines to stop accepting US Boeing aircraft and stop purchasing related equipment and parts. Boeing is likely to be the “biggest victim” of this tariff war, and rival Airbus will present opportunities.

This morning, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on the operation of the national economy for the first quarter of 2025:

GDP: According to preliminary accounting, the gross domestic product for the first quarter was 31875.8 billion yuan, up 5.4% year on year, and 1.2% month-on-month increase over the fourth quarter of the previous year. It ranks among the world's major economies.

Industrial value added: The value added of industries above scale in the first quarter increased 6.5% year-on-year. The actual year-on-year increase in March was 7.7%.

Fixed asset investment: National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 10317.4 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 4.2% year on year, 0.1 percentage points faster than in January-February.

Total retail sales of social consumer goods: Total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter were 12467.1 billion yuan, up 4.6% year on year. The year-on-year increase in March was 5.9%.

These data all indicate that the overall economy performed well in the first quarter.

Yesterday, I mentioned that DHgate has become popular, triggering the popularity of cross-border e-commerce. Shiteng Holdings (02562) is from Singapore and is a Southeast Asian e-commerce solution platform owned by Alibaba. In February of this year, Shiteng Holdings announced that it will launch the reality program “SuperStreamer Asia” to promote the live e-commerce market. In March of this year, Shiteng Holdings announced that it has joined forces with HKT to launch “ShopHK” to help Hong Kong SMEs and enterprises enter the Southeast Asian e-commerce market. Today it surged more than 25%.

From March to April 2025, the German hydrogen energy industry ushered in a critical turning point. Europe's largest hydrogen fueling station operator H2 Mobility announced the phased closure of 22 hydrogen fueling stations in Germany. The reason for the closure was mainly due to the fact that most of these sites are small facilities built 10 years ago, mainly serving passenger cars, and are unable to meet the needs of commercial vehicles for large-scale infrastructure (such as higher roofs and larger truck operating space).

In the early morning of April 16, Oman and the Netherlands signed three green hydrogen energy agreements involving the world's first liquefied hydrogen export project. Europe plans to set up a conversion station at the Port of Amsterdam to convert liquefied hydrogen back into a gaseous state and then deliver it to various industrial sectors in the Netherlands and Germany. The market anticipates that Chinese hydrogen energy companies may participate in the European market through technology export or cooperation, further opening up room for growth.

Hong Kong stock products related to Reshape Energy (02570) and Guofu Hydrogen Energy (02582) rose more than 20% in the intraday period, but both declined at the end of the market. The future mainly depends on whether there are any related orders.

Domestic consumption continues to be stimulated. Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao: Take more measures to expand service consumption. Guangzhou announced 25 measures to cultivate and build an international consumer center city, proposed implementing the city's duty-free shop policy, promoting the opening of duty-free shops in the city as soon as possible, and actively expanding inbound consumption. China Duty Free (01880), the leading duty-free market, rose 3.63%.

JD (09618) and Meituan (03690) have taken the lead. On April 15, Meituan officially launched the instant retail brand “Meituan Flash Sale”. The Meituan flash sales business was first launched within Meituan in 2018. Currently, Meituan's instant retail sales volume for non-food categories has exceeded 18 million orders per day. On the same day, JD said the number of takeout orders would exceed 5 million. At the same time, due to the rapid development of the instant delivery business, JD will recruit no less than 50,000 full-time takeaways this quarter, pay all five insurances in full, and all expenses will be borne by the company.

Stripe, a global payment service and financial infrastructure provider, announced today that it is deepening global cooperation with Tencent to officially connect Stripe Terminals in 20 countries to officially connect WeChat Pay. In countries such as Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States, businesses supported by Stripe can not only seamlessly connect to WeChat Pay online, but also accept offline payments through Stripe Terminal.

Additionally, “Wang Zhe Rongyao” officially announced today that it has reached a joint cooperation with the national comic film “Nacha: The Demon Boy in the Sea”, becoming the film's first game IP partner. Both sides will launch content such as 4 character skins and limited-time voice packs.

The future development space of enterprises moving towards internationalization is worth looking forward to, such as WeChat Pay by Tencent (00700) and overseas e-commerce by Alibaba (09988).

[Section Focus]

According to a research report published by UBS, according to Chinese real estate agents, since the imposition of tariffs by the US may directly affect buyers in the manufacturing and export industries, cities that are more affected by the export industry, such as Ningbo and Dongguan, have a negative impact on housing demand. On the other hand, in cities more affected by the domestic economy, such as Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Jinan, and Zhengzhou, demand is relatively stable, but buyers are sensitive to potential interest rate cuts and are awaiting potential policy incentives.

Overall, the bank is optimistic that there are more mainland developers than Hong Kong developers due to more policy responses and lower inventories in the mainland's core Tier 1 and 2 cities than Hong Kong.

In terms of policy response, UBS expects that the mainland government may speed up plans to repurchase inventory or vacant land and carry out urban village renovation by issuing special local government bonds. Furthermore, the bank expects the policy interest rate to be lowered by 30 to 40 basis points.

Fundamentals are also improving. In March, commercial residential sales prices in first-tier cities rose month-on-month, while the overall decline in second- and third-tier cities narrowed month-on-month. Policy catalyst: Qingdao introduces a new property market policy: families with two children are subsidized 50,000 yuan to buy a new home, and families with three children are subsidized 100,000 yuan.

Main types of Hong Kong stocks. Real estate developers: China Resources Land (01109), China Overseas Development (00688), Greentown China (03900), C&D International Group (01908); Property category: China Resources Vientiane Life (01209).

[Individual Stock Mining]

Tongcheng Travel (00780): As the May Day holiday approaches the peak season, OTA is expected to benefit from high prosperity

According to Tuniu data, the number of May Day travelers doubled year-on-year, with long-term domestic trips accounting for 40% and outbound short-term trips accounting for 30%. Among them, Japan and Southeast Asia are the most popular; according to Tongcheng travel forecasts, the popularity of tourism during the May Day holiday this year may reach its peak since 2023. In 2024Q4, Tongcheng Travel achieved revenue of 4.24 billion yuan/YoY +34.8%, adjusted net profit of 660 million yuan/YoY +36.8% /adjusted net profit margin of 15.6%.

Comment: May Day tourism is very popular this year. Whether it is liberalizing visa-free overseas tourists or domestic outbound tours, it is all very popular. The company is expected to experience a peak in bookings, and OTA is expected to benefit from the boom. The profitability of the company's core business improved markedly.

Looking at the business split, core OTA revenue grew steadily, and the international business expanded rapidly: on the revenue side, 2024Q4 transportation business revenue was 1.72 billion yuan/year over year, and its international air ticket market share expanded rapidly, and its annual business volume increased by more than 130% year on year; accommodation business revenue was 1.14 billion yuan/year over year +28.6%. Among them, international hotels maintained an industry-leading growth rate, and business volume increased by more than 110% year on year; other business revenue of 600 million yuan/year on year +14.8%. Among them, the Yilong Hotel Technology platform maintained an expansion trend and was close to 110% year-on-year. 2,300; the vacation business revenue is 780 million yuan, and the value of products and services drives more than 1,000 travel agency stores.

On the operating profit side, 2024Q4 core OTA operating profit was 980 million yuan/YoY +44.4% /operating profit margin 28.4%, and vacation business operating profit of 18.22 million yuan/operating margin 2.3%. Furthermore, the average number of monthly paying users reached a record high, and user value continued to rise: in 2024, the average number of monthly paying users reached 43.1 million/ +4.4% year over year, a record high. The annual number of paid users reached 240 million/ +1.5% year over year, and the number of annual service users reached 1.93 billion per year.

Overall, Tongcheng Travel, as an OTA leader in the sinking market, relies on Tencent and Ctrip's outstanding competitive advantages in traffic and inventory resources, and domestic business competitiveness continues to improve; actively positioning the international market is expected to drive the release of medium- to long-term revenue and performance gains.