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Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) sheds 6.2% this week, as yearly returns fall more in line with earnings growth

Simply Wall St · 04/11 02:25

When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For example, the Origin Energy Limited (ASX:ORG) share price has soared 103% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. The last week saw the share price soften some 6.2%.

Although Origin Energy has shed AU$1.1b from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

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To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the last half decade, Origin Energy became profitable. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:ORG Earnings Per Share Growth April 11th 2025

We know that Origin Energy has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? This free interactive report on Origin Energy's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Origin Energy, it has a TSR of 159% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Origin Energy shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 12% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 21% per year, is even more impressive. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Origin Energy (1 can't be ignored) that you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.