Hong Kong stocks closed (04.09) | Hang Seng Index closed up 0.68%, large consumer stocks and semiconductor stocks showed strong trends, and SMIC (00981) surged more than 10%

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Hong Kong stocks opened low today, the three major indices gained strength in the afternoon, and the Hengke Index rose more than 3% at one point. Southbound capital continued to boost the market, with a net purchase volume of over HK$35.5 billion per day, the highest single-day net purchase record in history. At the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.68% or 136.81 points to 20264.49 points, with a full-day turnover of HK$412.385 billion; the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises Index rose 1.41% to 7535.68 points; and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 2.64% to 4689.19 points.

Galaxy Securities pointed out that in the medium to long term, the three main lines with high allocation value in the Hong Kong stock market are: First, under the stimulus of domestic policies such as expanding domestic demand and stabilizing consumption, the performance of the consumer industry is expected to continue to improve, thus promoting the rise of consumer stocks with current valuations at historically low levels. Second, science and technology policy support will resonate with industry trends. Relevant companies are expected to improve their performance, and the technology sector is expected to continue to rise. Third, the high dividend strategy of Hong Kong stocks is still attractive, especially the high dividend targets of central enterprises that actively manage market value.

Blue-chip stock performance

Xiaomi Group-W (01810) performed well. At the close, it rose 7.71% to HK$41.9, with a turnover of HK$27.428 billion, contributing 87.55 points to the Hang Seng Index. According to the HSBC research report, Xiaomi's suppliers are less affected by the US tariff policy than Apple's because their dependence on the US market is extremely low, and their product positioning is more defensive against uncertain economic prospects. Yamato believes that the recent trend of the Xiaomi Group's stock price was weak after the car accident and allotment of shares, but since its fundamentals are still good, it is believed that falling stock prices are an attractive buying opportunity.

In terms of other blue-chip stocks, SMIC (00981) rose 10.47% to HK$43.25, contributing 30.56 points to the Hang Seng Index; Haidilao (06862) rose 6.7% to HK$17.2, contributing 3.51 points to the Hang Seng Index; AIA (01299) fell 6.02% to HK$49.95, dragging down the Hang Seng Index by 57.56 points; and CNPC (00857) fell 4.94% to HK$5.2, dragging down the Hang Seng Index by 9.44 points.

Popular sector aspects

On the market, most large technology stocks flourished. Xiaomi rose more than 7%, Meituan rose more than 4%, and Ali rose more than 1%. Domestic demand policies are expected to continue to be implemented. The trend of large consumer stocks is strong, with China's free investment surging by more than 23%; the semiconductor sector is expected to rise once again; geopolitical changes or reshaping military value logic, China Shipbuilding Defense led military stocks by more than 15% after rising; domestic housing stocks and property management stocks joined hands; Apple concept stocks are also rising; brokerage stocks, infrastructure stocks, etc. are rising one after another. On the other side, oil prices have continued to fall recently, and oil stocks have continued to be under pressure; gaming stocks and some pharmaceutical stocks have been sluggish.

1. Big consumer stocks are trending strongly. At the close, China Free (01880) rose 23.66% to HK$56.7; China Feihe (06186) rose 11.03% to HK$6.44; Haidilao (06862) rose 6.7% to HK$17.2; Michelle Group (02097) rose 6.54% to HK$404.2; China Free (01880) rose 5.16% to HK$45.85; China Resources Brewery (00291) rose 6.4% to HK$27.45.

Fangzheng Securities pointed out that the magnitude and strength of the US equal tariffs this time have all exceeded market expectations. Among them, China's exports to the US are expected to have a significant impact on exports of Chinese goods to the US in the future, taking into account the 20% tariffs already imposed previously in February-March. Exports, investment, and consumption are the troika driving economic growth. Against the backdrop of export pressure, more active fiscal and monetary support policies are worth looking forward to. Subsequent policies to promote consumption and boost domestic demand are expected to continue to be implemented to promote the stability and improvement of the domestic economy. The bank recommended focusing on highly flexible sectors of medicine and beauty, new consumption, and market opportunities under policies to boost domestic demand.

It is worth mentioning that yesterday, the State Administration of Taxation issued the “Notice on Promoting the “Buy and Refund” Service Measures for Overseas Travellers Shopping and Departure Tax Refunds, which clearly stipulates the main content, processing procedures and implementation time of “buy and refund” for departure tax refunds, and piloted this service measure from many places to the whole country. As a convenient service initiative, “Buy Now and Refund” is an upgrade and optimization of the “Departure Tax Refund” policy. It aims to provide overseas travelers with more convenient and diverse tax refund options. Earlier, the initiative was piloted in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Shenzhen, etc.

2. Semiconductor stocks rose significantly. At the close, Shanghai Fudan (01385) rose 10.67% to HK$26.45; SMIC (00981) rose 10.47% to HK$43.25; Huahong Semiconductor (01347) rose 8.06% to HK$29.5; and Hongguang Semiconductor (06908) rose 7.95% to HK$0.475.

Earlier, on April 2, the US government announced the imposition of “equal tariffs” on China's goods exported to the US, covering key semiconductor devices, chips, etc. In response to this, on April 4, China announced countermeasures and imposed 34% tariffs on all imported goods originating in the US on the basis of the current applicable tariff rate. CITIC Securities pointed out that the US imposes tariffs: the local industry's export exposure to the US is only 1%, the direct impact is limited, and the indirect impact remains to be seen; China's additional tariffs are conducive to accelerating share growth or profit improvement in segments that have already achieved technological breakthroughs. It is recommended to focus on the analog chip field; at a deeper level, the importance of autonomy and control is currently increasing, and the semiconductor localization process is expected to accelerate again.

3. Military stocks had the highest gains. At the close, China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) rose 15.88% to HK$9.56; China Aviation Technology (02357) rose 8.01% to HK$3.37; and Aerospace Holdings (00031) rose 5.97% to HK$0.355.

China Aviation Securities pointed out that China Aviation Securities pointed out that the military industry's correction was a concentrated implementation of the market's uncertain expectations for a period of time. As performance gradually became clear and high-quality standards made up for the decline, the military sector may shed its heavy burden in terms of fundamentals and emotions. The overall recovery of the sector can be expected, and the military industry is expected to become one of the industries with the greatest marginal improvement. The bank pointed out that the tariff storm is making a comeback, and it is optimistic about the military sector's independent market.

Furthermore, China Shipbuilding Defense issued an announcement stating that in the first quarter of 2025, net profit attributable to owners of the parent company is expected to be RMB 170 million to RMB 200 million, an increase of 1005.77% to 1200.91% over the previous year. During the reporting period, the company focused on annual goals and tasks, deepened lean management, steadily increased revenue and production efficiency of marine products, and improved product gross profit year-on-year; the operating performance of the company's joint ventures improved, confirming a year-on-year increase in investment income.

4. Domestic housing and property management stocks joined hands to rise. At the close, Sunac China (01918) rose 12.59% to HK$1.52; Xincheng Development (01030) rose 10.61% to HK$1.98; China Resources Vientiane Life (01209) rose 5.66% to HK$35.45; and Shimao Services (00873) rose 5.33% to HK$0.79.

On April 8, the General Office of the Ministry of Finance and the General Office of the Ministry of Housing, Urban-Rural Development issued a notice to launch the 2025 central financial support for the implementation of urban renewal actions. The central government will provide planned subsidies to the shortlisted cities. On the same day, the People's Financial News published an article stating that several first-tier cities are studying policy measures related to reserves to further stop the decline and stabilize the real estate market. The League of Nations Minsheng Securities pointed out that real estate, as an important support for domestic demand, is expected to benefit from the liquidity released by future interest rate cuts. At the same time, core cities still have room for policy relaxation adjustments to help the property market stop falling and stabilize.

CITIC Securities believes that the property services industry will usher in three major opportunities in 2025. The first is an inflection point in the policy of gradually rationalizing the price mechanism and promoting high quality and high prices. It is expected that the current situation where seizure difficulties are increasing may ease, and enterprises that provide good services for good houses are more encouraged by the policy; the second is the inflection point in the quality of enterprise operations. The bank expects the contribution of cyclical business to the sector's performance to drop to almost zero in 2025, peaking in the calculation of early goodwill and receivables. The sector's performance is expected to grow at 9.7%, and profit sustainability is expected to improve markedly. Finally, the company continues to increase cash dividends. The bank believes that the sector's mid-term dividend payment rate may reach 70%.

5. Oil stocks continue to be under pressure. At the close, CNPC (00857) fell 4.94% to HK$5.2; Sinopec (00386) fell 1.31% to HK$3.78; and CNOOC (00883) fell 1.24% to HK$15.94.

Recently, oil prices have fallen sharply due to Trump's tariff policy and OPEC+ production increase in May, which greatly exceeded expectations. International oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, and the US WTI crude oil settlement price fell nearly 2% to $59.58 per barrel, a new low since April 12, 2021. Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that under a more extreme situation where global GDP is slowing down and OPEC+ production cuts are completely lifted, we estimate that Brent crude oil will fall below 40 US dollars per barrel by the end of 2026, but it is very unlikely. This view does not reflect the bank's current basic scenario forecast, that is, it is expected that the price of Brent crude oil will be 55 US dollars per barrel in December next year.

Popular exotic stocks

1. Trading of Tongguan Gold (00340) resumed today. At the close, it rose 16.28% to HK$1.

Tongguan Gold announced that it will issue approximately 159.4.2 million shares and 168 million subscription shares to two independent third parties, Xu Guoming, and Zijin Metal, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zijin Mining, respectively, at a price of HK$0.69 per share, a 19.77% discount over April 8. The net capital raised is HK$225 million to be used to build a gold production line with a daily processing capacity of 450 tons; mine drilling activities; green mine construction; and supplementary working capital. After completion, Zijin will hold 3.82% of the company's share capital.

2. Rongchang Biotech (09995) pulled up in the afternoon. At the close, it rose 9.59% to HK$25.7.

Rongchang Biotech announced the results of the Phase 3 study on telitacicept (RC18), an innovative BLYS/April dual-target fusion protein drug developed independently to treat generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG), and presented an oral report at the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) Annual Meeting with the “Latest Breakthrough Study”. The data showed that after 24 weeks of treatment with titacipr, 98.1% of patients improved their myasthenia gravis daily activity score (MG-ADL) by at least 3 points, and 87% of patients improved their quantitative myasthenia gravis score (QMG) by at least 5 points, which has significant clinical significance.