Guojin Securities: Currently, e-commerce retail development is entering a mature period, and the core focus is on whether new technologies such as AI can bring substantial breakthroughs

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that the e-commerce industry has now entered a stage of stock competition, the platform strategy is shifting from a single model to “global collaboration”, and the focus of competition is changing: from a low price strategy to improving the business environment, the sinking of the market has become a necessary place. Technology-driven essential changes: Traditional e-commerce algorithm logic optimizes “search+payment” conversion, while Douyin predicts user needs and matches content, updates dynamic tags (such as video stay time and interaction rate) in real time, and cold launch products quickly gain customers through popular videos. Currently, the e-commerce retail industry is maturing, and it is difficult to achieve rapid growth from a scale perspective. Therefore, the core focus is on whether new technologies such as AI can bring about optimization and improvement of monetization efficiency and cost side.

Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:

WeChat stores are expected to develop a new model of “social” e-commerce The “social +” e-commerce model that Tencent explores through WeChat stores is reconstructing the traffic logic of traditional e-commerce

The core breakthrough of WeChat's small store is the deep integration of social and consumer scenarios: the gift-delivery function transforms gift-giving needs from traditional social interaction into e-commerce transactions, and at the same time forms efficient traffic reuse through “public-private linkage” within the WeChat ecosystem. WeChat has the ability to integrate global traffic: WeChat stores use a unified product ID to integrate multiple entry traffic such as public accounts, live video broadcasts, and friend circle advertisements. Through the closed-loop mechanism of “public domain guides private domain, private domain feeds back the public domain”, enterprises can attract users and then settle into the private domain, and then use private domain consumption data to increase the weight of public domain search rankings, forming a traffic multiplier effect.

Looking at the evolution path of the e-commerce industry from the three elements of people, goods, and markets, the continuous upgrading of the consumer experience and continuous improvement of operational efficiency

The essence of the evolution of the e-commerce industry is the restructuring of the “people and goods market” relationship. It has gone through three stages: 1) PC Internet Era (1998-2012): People: Focus on users in Tier 1 and 2 cities, and rely on standardized product parameters (such as the JD 3C configuration table) to shorten the decision-making chain. Goods: Mainly low unit price small commodities and 3C, the logistics network initially covers core cities. Market: The “shelf display+search and price comparison” model dominates, and Taobao Wangwang and Alipay guarantee transactions establish a trust mechanism.

2) Mobile Internet Era (2013-2018): People: User stratification intensified, and the sinking market was activated by Pinduoduo. Goods: Non-standard categories are on the rise, and Pinduoduo promotes large-scale circulation of white-branded products through social monetization. Market: Apps have become the core entry point, the popularity of mobile payments promotes O2O integration, and social media (such as WeChat groups) restructure traffic distribution logic.

3) Live e-commerce era (2019-present): People: User consumption decisions are shifting from rational price comparison to emotion-driven. Goods: Live pre-sale data is reverse customized production, and fresh products shorten the logistics link through direct delivery from the place of origin. Market: Video content has become a new entry point for transactions, and the scene has changed from “search shopping” to “interest discovery”.

4) Future AI-driven direction: Intelligent customer service, AI-generated advertising materials, and supply chain prediction systems will further improve operational efficiency. User-side applications such as immersive fitting and virtual anchors are still in their early stages.

Advanced e-commerce platform management strategy: entering a global e-commerce model with refined operation

Currently, the e-commerce industry has entered a stage of stock competition. The platform strategy is shifting from a single model to “global collaboration”, and differentiation between platforms is shrinking: integrated e-commerce platforms (Taotian, JD, Pinduoduo) make up for shortcomings in content, and social e-commerce platforms (Douyin, Kuaishou, WeChat stores) strengthen shelf construction. Changes in the focus of competition: From a low price strategy to improving the business environment, the sinking market has become a necessary place. Pinduoduo used a 10 billion subsidy to seize high-ranking users. Taotian and JD followed up with the launch of the “10 billion subsidy,” but the effects were mixed.

Douyin E-commerce Success Inspiration: Technology-Driven and Traffic Ecology The rise of Douyin e-commerce verifies the influence of the “technology+traffic” dual engine on the new model

1) Technology-driven fundamental transformation: Traditional e-commerce algorithm logic optimizes “search+payment” conversion, Douyin predicts user needs and matches content, updates dynamic tags (such as video stay time, interaction rate) in real time, and quickly gains customers through popular videos.

2) Differentiated construction of a traffic ecosystem: Relying on a mature third-party logistics system, Douyin avoids self-built logistics costs and focuses resources on content innovation. Douyin uses “content as a shelf” to anchor consumer decisions with short videos and live broadcasts covering the entire entertainment and consumption scene, forming a closed loop of “planting, transformation, and repurchasing”. Compared with traditional e-commerce “people looking for goods,” Douyin's content drainage logic unleashes unplanned consumption potential. Implications for new platforms: technology-driven is the primary factor, followed by product construction around its own traffic ecosystem. WeChat store: We need to dig deeper into the social relationship chain and develop scenario-based features such as “community groups” holiday vouchers, rather than copying the shelf model. Xiaohongshu: Strengthen the UGC community's trust value and focus on lifestyle recommendations for high-net-worth users.

Aspect of the target

It is recommended to focus on leading retail and internet companies such as Tencent Holdings (00700) and Kuaishou-W (01024).

Risk Alerts

The risk of macroeconomic and consumer demand fluctuations; the risk of increased competition and rising costs; the risk of tightening industry regulations.