Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | China's AI Big Model Sees Top Ranking in the World, and the weakening of the US dollar brings all-round stimulation

[Anatomy Dashboard]

Despite the overnight decline in US stocks, there was another bloody storm in the global market, falling across the board from Europe to Asia. In particular, Nikkei 225 fell 2.17%, which is already a technical bear market. Hong Kong stocks were resilient today. By noon, they had surged higher. However, there was a slight decline at the end of the market, closing down 0.57%.

The one-month delay in Canadian automobile tariffs triggered a rebound in US stocks. Trump repeated his old trick, saying on social media on March 6, local time, that the implementation of the 25% tariff measures imposed on Mexico will be suspended until April 2. This decision applies to all goods and services covered by the “US-Mexico-Canada Agreement” (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement).

This is interesting or not. The same routine was played over and over again in Mexico. Investors were not stupid; US stocks simply turned back and down. This repeated use of tariffs as a joke caused investors to have extremely unstable psychological expectations. Furthermore, the scale of the current tariffs far exceeds the scale of 2018, and triggering inflation is inevitable.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller: I don't think it's necessary to cut interest rates in March. There's nothing wrong with this statement. If inflation doesn't go down, how can we cut interest rates, we can't force a reduction. To reduce inflation, we first need to see if oil prices can be lowered. To fix Russia and Saudi Arabia, we also need to fix Iran. The task is quite arduous and requires effort.

Let's take a look at the next non-agricultural data. It's a little wrong, and maybe increases the possibility of cutting interest rates a little bit. According to the famous “Fear/Greed Index,” the market is already in the “extreme fear” range after the rapid decline in US stocks in this round. It is definitely false to say that Trump is not afraid of falling US stocks. Otherwise, he will “throw the pot”: the sell-off of US stocks has nothing to do with tariffs; formulating policies that do not look at these is due to “globalists” causing the market downturn. What is this globalist; the vast majority of the world's capital is not in the US? Furthermore, when the stock market rises, Trump often flaunts that it is his own credit; as soon as it falls, he says that he doesn't look at this when formulating policies.

The reason why the Chinese stock market is strong is because it is based on the strength of comprehensive national strength. On March 6, at the economic-themed press conference of the Third Session of the 14th National People's Congress, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao delivered a speech in response to whether the Sino-US trade war would escalate. If the US side goes further and further along the wrong path, we will stay with you until the end. That's the motivation. What is even more exciting is Foreign Minister Wang Yi's response to the press conference between China and foreign countries, and suggests that everyone should read it, which is very boosting confidence. It can be said that for such a long time, China has stood up and made its voice heard all over the world.

China's General Administration of Customs today released China's import and export data for the first two months of this year. Data show that in the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 6.54 trillion yuan. Among them, the export scale reached a record high for the same period, and China's foreign trade started smoothly. The export performance of integrated circuits was particularly impressive. The export value reached US$25.104 billion, achieving a year-on-year increase of 11.91%, continuing the good development trend.

The direction of integrated circuit RISC-V chips continues to be catalyzed, and eight departments, including the Internet Information Office and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, are jointly promoting the application of RISC-V chips nationwide. This policy aims to accelerate technological autonomy through top-level design and reduce dependence on Western architectures such as ARM and x86. Related products, Shanghai Fudan (01385), once again rose more than 10%, and Huahong Semiconductor (01347) rose 2.7%.

Regarding the launch of Manus yesterday, there was controversy in the market. One of them was the “package shell,” that is, it has no ability to develop the underlying big model on its own. Manus's modelling ability comes from Anthropic's Claude. This really isn't a new concept, and the technical threshold isn't that high. Admittedly, there aren't many new technologies in this, but the integration is perfect. This is equivalent to innovation, which will greatly promote the development of intelligent devices. Many varieties of DS that were reproduced yesterday have been adjusted today, but there is new news from AI.

Today at 3 a.m., Andreessen Horowitz (a16z for short), a world-renowned investment fund and consulting firm, released the 2025 global ranking of 100 generative AI consumer applications. The brightest one is undoubtedly Deepseek, the “big dark horse” of China's generative AI model. In just two months, DeepSeek went from being obscure to becoming a powerful challenger for ChatGPT, ranking second among web-based AI applications.

Other well-known Chinese models have also grown rapidly and entered this ranking: ByteDance's Doubao ranked 10th; Dark Side of the Moon ranked 11th; Conch Video ranked 12th; and Kuaishou Keling ranked 20th, all surpassing famous products such as Sora, Midjourney, and Runway.

As can be seen, China's AI technology has gained international popularity, and the related individual stock Kuaishou (01024) has risen nearly 5%. Fourth Paradigm (06682) and Huawei Shengteng AI released a newly upgraded SageOne IA all-in-one solution. On the basis of supporting mainstream models such as DeepSeek V3/R1, QwEN2.5, and LLAMa3.3, enterprises can flexibly switch between the full blood version and multiple distillation models. Today, it is also up more than 7%. AI+ Tourism's Tongcheng Trip (00780) rose 4.85%.

In terms of robotics, the Shanghai Stock Exchange held the “Future Industry Salon” humanoid robot industry symposium on March 6. The theme of the symposium was “Dialogue with Future Partners: Humanoid Robots”. More than 20 listed companies in the industry chain, companies to be listed, and professional institutions such as brokerage firms, venture capital institutions, banks and other professional institutions attended the conference.

The robot circuit has attracted the interest of many car companies. Xiaomi (01810) announced the latest development CyberOne has moved from the laboratory to the phased implementation stage on the production line. The product is officially defined as a “full-size humanoid robot”. It is 177 cm tall and weighs 52 kg, and focuses on home care and companionship.

Afterwards, Xiaopeng Motors, NIO Auto, etc. also released news and laid out humanoid robots. Since 2023, Xiaopeng (09868) launched the first biped humanoid robot PX5. It is 178 cm tall, weighs 70 kg, and has 62 degrees of freedom. Xiaopeng Motors recently revealed that its latest AI robot, Iron, will be equipped with a self-developed chip and has 15 degrees of freedom and mimicry hands.

The market continues to explore new varieties. Beijing Electromechanical Co., Ltd. (00187): New product release: On March 1, Beijing Electromechanical, a state-owned enterprise, Paitian Robotics, a state-owned enterprise in Beijing, released the first industrial self-contained welding robot system product. Using computer 3D vision technology and deep learning, the system can automatically identify and track welds, fully automate and intelligentize the welding process, enable robots to weld workpieces of various sizes, and improve welding quality and the efficiency of deploying robots. Today it surged more than 24%. Another Yongda Auto (03669) recently announced its entry into the robotics industry, and today it is also up nearly 5%.

Expanding consumption in 2025 will introduce more practical and effective measures to expand the range of categories of “exchange” subsidies. Leading company Michelle Group (02097) has been very strong recently. With the “global procurement+self-production base” dual-track supply chain model, Michelle has reduced raw material costs to one-third of the industry average, supporting a huge scale of 46,000 stores and annual sales of 9 billion cups. It has spurred the collective strength of individual sportswear stocks, such as Taobo (06110), 361 (01361), and Li Ning (02331). In fact, the underlying logic behind it is a weakening of the US dollar, which favors exports, as well as Shenzhou International (02313).

The latest US dollar index reached 103.64, and there is no sign of stopping the decline. The impact of the weakening dollar is all-round, including the strengthening of commodities. Strengthening metal prices will be a trend. According to data from the Chamber of Commerce, the price of antimony ingots in the Hunan market on March 3 was 162,500 yuan/ton, up nearly 12.6% from 142,000 yuan/ton in early February. Additionally, according to sources, global aluminum producers are seeking a premium of 245-260 US dollars per ton from Japanese buyers this week for April-6 raw aluminum shipments, up 7%-14% from the current quarter.

Related individual stocks such as Jinchuan International (02362), China Hongqiao (01378), and China Aluminum (02600) have been very strong recently. In addition, the combined compression of production capacity in steel stocks is also quite powerful. For example, Angang Steel (00347) has surged nearly 12%. Others include Chongqing Steel (01053) and Maanshan Steel (00323).

[Section Focus]

There has been a sudden change in German politics recently, and the new government that is about to take office unexpectedly announced a large-scale fiscal stimulus plan. According to disclosed information, Germany will establish a special infrastructure fund (SPV) of up to 500 billion euros, “unlimited” support for defense spending, and allow local governments to increase borrowing. The total size of the program could exceed 1 trillion euros.

Deutsche Bank analysts lamented that investors are witnessing the largest shift in fiscal policy in Germany's post-war history. The fiscal stimulus plan is strong enough to be compared to the unification of the two Germans 35 years ago. What has received the most attention in this fiscal stimulus plan is the “loosening” of investment in national defense. The new plan excludes defense consumption of more than 1% of GDP from the “fiscal deficit” mechanism. This means that, in theory, the German government can invest in defense funds of any size, and there is no “upper limit” for defense spending.

As the European Union's leader, a large-scale increase in defense investment will trigger the entire West to follow suit. Overall military orders may give room for imagination, and China itself will also step up its efforts, because there will be more places where safety and security is needed in the future.

The main varieties of Hong Kong stocks: China Aviation Technology (02357), China Shipbuilding Defense (00317).

[Individual Stock Mining]

Bilibili-W (09626): Reversing losses for the first time in Q4 and contributed significantly to the core business of profit

Bilibili disclosed results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, which exceeded market expectations. In 2024Q4, we achieved revenue of 7.734 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22% and a month-on-month increase of 16%; non-GAAP net profit of 452 million yuan, turning a year-on-year loss into a profit, achieving GAAP quarterly profit for the first time. Annual revenue of 26.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, set a new record.

Comment: Bilibili achieved full profit in a single quarter for the first time, and the three core businesses contributed significantly. Advertising business: Q4 revenue was 2,389 million yuan, up 24% year on year; annual revenue was 8.189 billion yuan, up 28% year on year. The average daily usage time of users in the fourth quarter increased 4.2% year on year to 99 minutes, and the average daily video playback volume increased 14% year over year to over 4.8 billion. At the same time, it also has 258 million regular members, providing a lower-level user base for advertising and other business growth.

Mobile game business: Q4 revenue was 1,798 billion yuan, up 9% year on year; annual revenue was 5.610 billion yuan, up 40% year over year, mainly due to the strong performance of the exclusively licensed game “Three Kingdoms: Determining the World”, which was the fastest game in Station B's history to reach 1 billion dollars. Revenue from the two major evergreen games “FGO” and “Azure Line” is still growing.

Value-added services: Q4 revenue was 3.083 billion yuan, up 8% year on year; annual revenue was 10.999 billion yuan, up 11% year on year. Mainly due to other value-added services and increased conference members' turnover, the number of conference member subscribers maintained steady growth. The company's management said that our operating margin increased from -10% to 6% in the past year, and the medium- to long-term operating margin is expected to reach 15% to 20%.

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