Wanlian Securities: A total of 4 key films were screened in the Qingming Festival, and the box office showed a strong recovery trend

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Wanlian Securities released a research report saying that the higher-than-expected performance of the New Year's Day and Spring Festival programs gave the film market a good start in 2024. Under multiple favorable factors such as the restoration of film and television production efficiency, the revival of movie-watching enthusiasm, and macroeconomic recovery, the film market showed strong vitality. The overall supply of Qingming movies this year is clearly more adequate than in the past few years. There are more diverse topics and genres, and the schedule box office is expected to recover strongly. It is recommended to focus on the core producers and producers of high-quality films and leading companies related to the film and television line.

The main views of Wanlian Securities are as follows:

In 2024, a total of 4 key films will be screened in the Qingming Festival, including “What kind of life do you want to live”, “Grass Tree World”, “The Big “Anti-Fighter”, and “The Yellow Finch Is Behind!”

Overall box office: The quantity and quality of content supply has risen sharply, and the Qingming edition shows a strong recovery trend

As the first golden season after the Spring Festival, the Qingming Festival played a role in the mainland film market in the first half of the year. The total box office rose from 687 million yuan in 2018 to 822 million yuan in 2021, and the share of the schedule's box office fluctuated from 1.13% to 1.75% of the annual box office. In the past two years, the Qingming edition lacked the support of leading films, and the number of movies released was relatively small. The performance declined. The box office fell to 198 million yuan in 2023, accounting for only 0.37% of the annual box office.

The theatrical film market picked up across the board in 2024, and daily box office performance showed a significant year-on-year recovery. Compared with the past few years, the overall supply of Qingming movies was significantly more adequate, with more themes and more diverse genres. Together with the popular overseas film “Godzilla vs. Kong 2” released before the holiday season and the removal of “Let's Shake the Sun Together” during the Spring Festival, they boosted the Qingming box office market in 2024.

Internal structure: “What kind of life do you want to live” leads the Qingming Festival, and word of mouth and film quality achieved the final box office

The 4 films are diverse in genre, covering animation, comedy, drama, suspense, etc. We predict that the top three box-office winners for the 2024 Spring Festival will be “What kind of life do you want to live”, “The Big “Anti-Party” faction, and “The Yellow Finch is behind!” It is predicted that the total box office will reach 729 million yuan. Judging from the analysis of individual films, “What kind of life do you want to live” is Miyazaki Hayao's “farewell work”. It tells the story of young Maki Masato, who falls into grief after her mother's death in flames, and finds it difficult to fit into a new environment. In an accident, he follows a heron into a fantastic “world of the undead” and begins an incredible adventure.

Furthermore, the film won the 96th Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film. This is also another time that Miyazaki won this award after “Spirited Away” in 2003. The film has secured quite a bit of popularity ahead of time. Coupled with Miyazaki Hayao's extremely high box office influence and the film has already been verified by overseas markets, the final box office will be quite impressive. The final box office will be quite impressive. The box office is expected to be 460 million yuan.

Risk factors: Film reputation and quality fall short of expectations; risk of film delays; risk related to film reputation.